The Scale of the Challenge
An estimated 220 billion to 800 billion lines of COBOL code remain in active use across global enterprises, processing trillions in daily transactions. Surveys indicate nearly half of organizations expect COBOL usage to grow in the next years.
But over 80% anticipate these systems will outlast their current workforce.
What's at Stake?
Take a moment to consider the impact on these organizations, and indeed on the United States, when these COBOL developers are no longer available. COBOL powers:
Who is responsible for maintaining the US economy when these specialists retire?
The Real Crisis: Losing Embedded Business Intelligence
This isn't merely a technical issue; it's a threat to business continuity. When these knowledge holders leave, they don't just take their technical skills. They walk away with an irreplaceable understanding of how your business actually works at the deepest level. Who else knows:
- Complex business rules refined over decades and baked into code
- Undocumented interdependencies across systems
- Historical business rationale for architectural choices
- Tribal knowledge on quirks, workarounds, and production behaviors
We Tried Replacement, But...
9 in 10
rewrite projects don't succeed on their initial attempt
1.5M+
average cost per modernization project, with 79% experiencing at least one failure
You could write a dissertation (and some have) on why this type of project often fails. Discussions around legacy system replacement in the past have frequently fixated naively on the language itself, overlooking the goldmine of business intelligence it encodes. COBOL applications aren't just transaction processors—they house refined logic for compliance, workflows, and operations, worth millions in institutional value.
Five Dimensions of Knowledge Loss
When system experts retire, the losses cascade across five dimensions of operations:
Business Logic Intelligence
The "why" behind calculations and algorithms, shaped by regulations and scenarios.
System Architecture Knowledge
How components interact, revealing workflow patterns and data flows.
Historical Context
Reasons for past decisions, averting costly repeats.
Operational Tribal Knowledge
Insights on seasonality, concurrency, and failure signals.
Risk Assessment
Evaluating the impact of changes to ensure safe modifications.
You know the value of your COBOL. You know this knowledge is embedded in the code, but up until now, you had to rely on experienced COBOL developers to extract it for you.
A Smarter Path: AI-Powered Preservation
COBOL Colleague—a breakthrough solution transforms this crisis into an opportunity by identifying and explaining business functionality with certainty. It untangles COBOL application complexity by analyzing source code to remove GOTO tangles and structure logic for clarity, reducing a typical 8-hour analysis to just 8 minutes.
Several other benefits emerge when the Phase Change platform deeply traces entire COBOL applications. Methodically, it:
- Builds a Knowledge Graph: Mapping business rules, functions, and outcomes into an extensible ontology for precise, intention-based documentation.
- Generates Insights: Leveraging AI to produce human-friendly explanations, bridging technical and business stakeholders via API-first integration with SDLC tools.
- Documents Business Functions: Establishing a unified framework that exposes your business capabilities and why your COBOL applications continue to perform.
With a clear and verifiable understanding of an application and a comprehensive view of all inputs and outputs, the value created by your innovative engineering minds is preserved. While your organization may feel the loss of these outstanding contributors, their legacy will be sustained and fully understood.
That's Why COBOL Colleague
Backed by a visionary team and validated through Gartner's lens, this solution doesn't just preserve the past; it empowers the future.
Ready to flip brain drain into brain trust? If this resonates for your team, it’s probably worth a 15-minute call to map your codebase.